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Finishing-position props (over / under)

Secondary market. The model's absolute finishing-position line is a weaker signal than the head-to-head matchups above — shown for completeness.

DriverTeamMarketLineProjPickEdgeHit %ConfGrade

🏁 Pre-race model projections — every driver

DriverTeamProj FinishWinTop 3Top 5Top 10DNF
Ryan BlaneyTeam Penske5.016.3%39%54%75%12%
Joey LoganoTeam Penske5.015.1%37%52%74%10%
Kyle LarsonHendrick Motorsports6.011.5%31%46%70%12%
Denny HamlinJoe Gibbs Racing6.010.6%29%44%70%9%
Chase BriscoeJoe Gibbs Racing7.010.5%29%43%69%11%
Christopher BellJoe Gibbs Racing8.06.9%21%35%61%11%
William ByronHendrick Motorsports10.04.2%15%26%52%12%
Chase ElliottHendrick Motorsports10.04.0%14%25%52%10%
Bubba Wallace23XI Racing10.04.0%14%25%50%13%
Austin CindricTeam Penske10.03.7%13%24%50%11%
Ty GibbsJoe Gibbs Racing11.03.1%11%21%46%12%
Ryan PreeceRFK Racing13.02.2%9%17%40%12%
Josh BerryWood Brothers Racing14.01.7%7%14%35%15%
Tyler Reddick23XI Racing14.01.3%6%12%33%10%
Ross ChastainTrackhouse Racing14.01.3%6%13%34%11%
Brad KeselowskiRFK Racing17.00.8%4%8%25%11%
Carson HocevarSpire Motorsports17.00.5%3%7%22%11%
Daniel SuárezSpire Motorsports18.00.5%3%6%20%11%
Alex BowmanHendrick Motorsports18.00.4%2%5%19%11%
Todd GillilandFront Row Motorsports19.00.3%2%5%17%10%
Chris BuescherRFK Racing19.00.3%2%5%17%9%
Shane Van GisbergenTrackhouse Racing20.00.3%2%4%15%10%
Austin DillonRichard Childress Racing21.00.1%1%3%11%12%
Erik JonesLegacy Motor Club23.00.1%1%2%8%10%
Michael McDowellSpire Motorsports23.00.0%0%1%6%10%
Cole CusterHaas Factory Team24.00.1%0%1%5%11%
Zane SmithFront Row Motorsports25.00.1%0%1%4%12%
Noah GragsonFront Row Motorsports25.00.0%0%1%5%16%
AJ AllmendingerKaulig Racing26.00.0%0%1%4%13%
Connor ZilischTrackhouse Racing26.00.0%0%1%4%18%
Ricky Stenhouse JrHYAK Motorsports27.00.0%0%0%2%13%
Riley Herbst23XI Racing27.00.0%0%0%3%14%
John H. NemechekLegacy Motor Club28.00.0%0%0%2%11%
Austin HillRichard Childress Racing28.00.0%0%0%1%12%
Ty DillonKaulig Racing28.00.0%0%0%1%10%
Cody WareRick Ware Racing31.00.0%0%0%0%15%
Josh BilickiGarage 6631.00.0%0%0%0%14%
Finishing-position simulation — live every day, before books post driver props.
Each row's pick is the better side, not a free bet. Proj is the projected finishing position (median of the simulated distribution). In the Edge column, M = More (finish over the line) and L = Less (finish under the line). Edge and Hit % are projection-based. Click a row for the driver's full finishing-position distribution. Entertainment & information only, 21+. Please bet responsibly.